Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Do I owe Ron Paul money?
Chapter 5: Closing the Ring

In the summer of 2008 I had a Ron Paul nut subletting in my apartment, and he was convinced that the sky was falling. He kept making these dire predictions, but every time I tried to nail him down on specifics, he would skitter away. In the fashion of 9/11 Troofers and other conspiracy-mongering morons, he would say that he was just 'asking questions.'

So one day he was blathering on again about how shadowy, evil forces were manipulating the global financial system, which would very soon experience a catastrophe of biblical proportions. The stock market would collapse, he said, and even paper money would become worthless. And then he made a specific, empirically testable prediction. He said that in the next year (or two), the price of gold would rise and stock prices would fall such that the numbers for the price of an ounce of gold in dollars and the Dow Jones Industrial Average would meet (probably at around 3,000).

So I made him a wager. The gap between the price of gold and the Dow Jones was then about ten thousand. If it were to close to half that distance in the next year or so, then I would admit that his prediction seemed to be coming true and would make a large donation to Ron Paul. For his part, he said that if this did not come true, he would not donate to Ron Paul.

(Yes, he bet nothing. It was a cowardly dodge. But in his defense, he's seen that none of his predictions of doom ever come to pass. He has accordingly concluded that the Secret Masters are manipulating events to make him and Dr. Paul look foolish. Also, he has no money to bet, because even though he understands the financial system on levels I never will, his investments never turn out and he is always poor. Again, those darn Secret Masters.)

September 2009 was the deadline, and here we are. And what a trip it has been! I'll admit, there were some moments where I genuinely wondered if this blind squirrel had managed to stumble across an acorn. But then our Magical Unicorn Rider-in-Chief saved America or something and the economy staggered to its feet.

So here are the numbers for the last three months:

July 21, 2009
* Dow Jones = 8,915.94 points
* Price of Gold = $947.75
* Difference = 7,968.19

August 21, 2009
* Dow Jones = 9,505.96 points
* Price of Gold = $940.50
* Difference = 8,565.46

September 21, 2009
* Dow Jones = 9,778.86 points
* Price of Gold = $997.00
* Difference = 8,781.86

And the winner is: Me! In the last fifteen months, the price of gold has not substantially risen and the stock market (though it had problems far larger than what I would have expected) has demonstrated amazing resilience. Hooray for capitalism! Hooray for optimism! Hooray for America!

And boo for crazy old Ron Paul and all his nutty followers that stocked up on gold and guns and apocalypse repellent.



Sylvia said...

Ah, how invigorating is thy writing style, o "Sunshine" Dave Rahimi! Would that I could arrange words and syllables so delightfully!

the House of Payne said...

It's very simple, Sylvia. My secret ingredient is love.

squirrelyearl said...

Grats. I'm glad you're not paying Ron Paul's campaign a dime.