Saturday, June 27, 2009

Do I owe Ron Paul money?
Chapter 4: The Hinge of Fate

Faithful imaginary readers will recall that last summer I made a bet with a Ron Paul nut. He predicted that the Dow Jones and the price of gold would converge in the next year or two. I told him that if the gap between these numbers closed half the distance (from 10,000 to 5,000) before September 2009, I would make a donation to Ron Paul's campaign.

For the first two months, the gap remained unchanged. Then in October of last year, it narrowed rapidly as the stock market collapsed. For the next six months or so, the gap flirted with 6,000-- a mere thousand from the magic number.

Happily, though, the stock market began to recover in the Spring, and the price of gold has remained pretty stable. So here's the data for the last three months:

April 21, 2009
* Dow Jones = 7,969.56 points
* Price of Gold = $888.75
* Difference = 7,080.81

May 21, 2009
* Dow Jones = 8,292.13 points
* Price of Gold = $937.50
* Difference = 7,354.63

June 22, 2009 (no data for 6/21)
* Dow Jones = 8,339.01 points
* Price of Gold = $919.25
* Difference = 7,419.76

For the last few months, the gap has been averaging just under 7,500, which is about halfway between the starting line and the victory line for my Ron Paul-loving friend. It's not as good as I would like, but it's way better than 6,000. And the bet is over in September, so there's not much time left for Ron Paul's doom to destroy us all. Hooray!

We seem to have turned an important corner. On April 2nd, the numbers were over the line predicted by the Ron-Paul-nut-theory for the first time since October. It was as if the hinge of fate had swung. And they've stayed over the line every day but one (April 7th). Awesome!

Thank you, American economy. Thank you for justifying my faith in you. Now please don't let me down, okay?


(Update 6/29 : Will someone please tell the reverend Dr. Paul that refusing to condemn vicious anti-democratic thuggery is objectively pro-fascist? Thanks!)


squirrelyearl said...

Really a shame that you won't be contributing, I mean I can imagine he would really put that money to good use...

the House of Payne said...

Yeah, he could buy another love blimp.

imaginary reader 1 said...

so glad you've kept us updated on this one!

the House of Payne said...

Well, I'm hoping that this series will win me a Pulitzer.

David said...

That link to the statement by Dr. Ron Paul Prophet of the Apocalypse is truly amazing. Here are my favorite gems:

"By 1933, Americans could no longer own gold..." (does that mean Mom is not American?)

"The central banks of the world secretly collude to centrally plan the world economy."

the House of Payne said...

It would be even better if it said "The central banks of the world secretly plan to centrally plan the secret world bank."