Do I owe Ron Paul money?
Chapter 4: The Hinge of Fate
Faithful imaginary readers will recall that last summer I made a bet with a Ron Paul nut. He predicted that the Dow Jones and the price of gold would converge in the next year or two. I told him that if the gap between these numbers closed half the distance (from 10,000 to 5,000) before September 2009, I would make a donation to Ron Paul's campaign.
For the first two months, the gap remained unchanged. Then in October of last year, it narrowed rapidly as the stock market collapsed. For the next six months or so, the gap flirted with 6,000-- a mere thousand from the magic number.
Happily, though, the stock market began to recover in the Spring, and the price of gold has remained pretty stable. So here's the data for the last three months:
April 21, 2009
* Dow Jones = 7,969.56 points
* Price of Gold = $888.75
* Difference = 7,080.81
May 21, 2009
* Dow Jones = 8,292.13 points
* Price of Gold = $937.50
* Difference = 7,354.63
June 22, 2009 (no data for 6/21)
* Dow Jones = 8,339.01 points
* Price of Gold = $919.25
* Difference = 7,419.76
For the last few months, the gap has been averaging just under 7,500, which is about halfway between the starting line and the victory line for my Ron Paul-loving friend. It's not as good as I would like, but it's way better than 6,000. And the bet is over in September, so there's not much time left for Ron Paul's doom to destroy us all. Hooray!
We seem to have turned an important corner. On April 2nd, the numbers were over the line predicted by the Ron-Paul-nut-theory for the first time since October. It was as if the hinge of fate had swung. And they've stayed over the line every day but one (April 7th). Awesome!
Thank you, American economy. Thank you for justifying my faith in you. Now please don't let me down, okay?
--JAN DE PAUW
(Update 6/29 : Will someone please tell the reverend Dr. Paul that refusing to condemn vicious anti-democratic thuggery is objectively pro-fascist? Thanks!)